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Real Betis vs Arsenal: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Real Betis5th, 9 pts
–Matchday 7
Arsenal7th, 7 pts
19%Real Betis win
23%Draw
58%Arsenal win

The model gives Real Betis a 19% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Arsenal 58%. Real Betis's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 99%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 67%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeReal Betis: top 8Real Betis: throughArsenal: top 8Arsenal: through
Now36%99%86%100%
Real Betis win67%100%67%>99%
Draw39%>99%81%100%
Arsenal win24%99%95%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
50%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%Real Betis clean sheet
39%Arsenal clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Real Betis

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WLille A3–2
  2. MD2WPorto H3–2
  3. MD3WFeyenoord H1–0
  4. MD4Borussia Dortmund A4 November
  5. MD5Slovan Bratislava A24 November
  6. MD6Como H9 December
  7. MD7Arsenal H this match20 January
  8. MD8Bayern München A27 January

Arsenal

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WNapoli A1–0
  2. MD2WLille H3–0
  3. MD3DBayern München A2–2
  4. MD4Slavia Praha A4 November
  5. MD5Borussia Dortmund H24 November
  6. MD6Real Madrid H9 December
  7. MD7Real Betis A this match20 January
  8. MD8Sabah H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Real Betis vs Arsenal?

The model gives Real Betis a 19% chance of winning and Arsenal 58%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Arsenal?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Real Betis and 1.8 for Arsenal, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Real Betis?

Real Betis's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw >99% and a defeat 99%.

What does this match mean for Arsenal?

Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 81% and a defeat 67%.

When is Real Betis vs Arsenal played?

Wednesday 20 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →