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Como vs Paris Saint-Germain: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 21:00

Como9th, 6 pts
–Matchday 7
Paris Saint-Germain1st, 9 pts
15%Como win
21%Draw
64%Paris Saint-Germain win

The model gives Como a 15% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Paris Saint-Germain 64%. Como's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 88%. Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 88%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeComo: top 8Como: throughParis Saint-Germain: top 8Paris Saint-Germain: through
Now11%91%96%100%
Como win30%>99%88%100%
Draw12%94%94%100%
Paris Saint-Germain win6%88%99%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.8 – 2.0Expected goals
49%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
14%Como clean sheet
43%Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
1–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Como

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WLeipzig H4–1
  2. MD2LFeyenoord A2–3
  3. MD3WManchester United H4–1
  4. MD4Lens A4 November
  5. MD5AEK Athens H24 November
  6. MD6Real Betis A9 December
  7. MD7Paris Saint-Germain H this match20 January
  8. MD8Barcelona A27 January

Paris Saint-Germain

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +9

  1. MD1WSlovan Bratislava H6–1
  2. MD2WManchester City A4–2
  3. MD3WBarcelona H4–2
  4. MD4Villarreal A3 November
  5. MD5Roma H25 November
  6. MD6Aston Villa A8 December
  7. MD7Como A this match20 January
  8. MD8Galatasaray H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Como vs PSG?

The model gives Como a 15% chance of winning and Paris Saint-Germain 64%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (12%).

Will both teams score in Como vs PSG?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for Como and 2.0 for Paris Saint-Germain, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Como?

Como's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 88%.

What does this match mean for Paris Saint-Germain?

Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 88%.

When is Como vs Paris Saint-Germain played?

Wednesday 20 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →