Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
Inter26th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Shakhtar Donetsk18th, 1 pts
76%Inter win
16%Draw
9%Shakhtar Donetsk win
The model gives Inter a 76% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Shakhtar Donetsk 9%. Inter's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 83%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 39%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Inter: top 8 | Inter: through | Shakhtar Donetsk: top 8 | Shakhtar Donetsk: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 36% | 95% | 2% | 44% |
| Inter win | 43% | 97% | 1% | 39% |
| Draw | 21% | 91% | 2% | 53% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 12% | 83% | 8% | 74% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
1–011%
3–011%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven
- Liverpool – Villarreal
- Manchester City – AEK Athens
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Lille – Galatasaray
- Aston Villa – Viking
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Bayern München – Arsenal
- Real Madrid – Leipzig
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK