Knockout Math
Latviski

Galatasaray vs Feyenoord: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 18:45

Galatasaray29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Feyenoord33rd, 0 pts
48%Galatasaray win
25%Draw
26%Feyenoord win

The model gives Galatasaray a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Feyenoord 26%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 60%, a defeat to 24%. Feyenoord's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 35%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Galatasaray: top 8Galatasaray: throughFeyenoord: top 8Feyenoord: through
Now2%44%3%47%
Galatasaray win3%60%1%35%
Draw1%35%2%47%
Feyenoord win<1%24%7%71%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

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