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Porto vs Slavia Praha: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

Porto34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Slavia Praha32nd, 1 pt
59%Porto win
22%Draw
18%Slavia Praha win

The model gives Porto a 59% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Slavia Praha 18%. Porto's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 38%, a defeat to 8%. Slavia Praha's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 14%, a defeat to 1%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomePorto: top 8Porto: throughSlavia Praha: top 8Slavia Praha: through
Now<1%27%<1%4%
Porto win<1%38%0%1%
Draw0%15%0%3%
Slavia Praha win0%8%<1%14%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
40%Porto clean sheet
16%Slavia Praha clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Porto

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LManchester City H0–2
  2. MD2LReal Betis A2–3
  3. MD3LPSV Eindhoven H0–1
  4. MD4Napoli H4 November
  5. MD5Feyenoord A24 November
  6. MD6Liverpool A9 December
  7. MD7Slavia Praha H this match19 January
  8. MD8LASK A27 January

Slavia Praha

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LLens H2–3
  2. MD2LSabah A0–2
  3. MD3DFenerbahçe A2–2
  4. MD4Arsenal H4 November
  5. MD5Villarreal H25 November
  6. MD6Bayern München A8 December
  7. MD7Porto A this match19 January
  8. MD8Aston Villa H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Porto vs Slavia Prague?

The model gives Porto a 59% chance of winning and Slavia Praha 18%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Porto vs Slavia Prague?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Porto and 0.9 for Slavia Praha, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Porto?

Porto's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 38%, a draw 15% and a defeat 8%.

What does this match mean for Slavia Praha?

Slavia Praha's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 14%, a draw 3% and a defeat 1%.

When is Porto vs Slavia Praha played?

Tuesday 19 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →