Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 18:45
Fenerbahçe19th, 1 pts
–Matchday 7
Villarreal21st, 0 pts
37%Fenerbahçe win
26%Draw
36%Villarreal win
The model gives Fenerbahçe a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Villarreal 36%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 41%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 45%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Fenerbahçe: top 8 | Fenerbahçe: through | Villarreal: top 8 | Villarreal: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 4% | 59% | 5% | 63% |
| Fenerbahçe win | 8% | 79% | 1% | 45% |
| Draw | 2% | 56% | 3% | 61% |
| Villarreal win | 1% | 41% | 9% | 82% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – Atlético de Madrid
- Galatasaray – Feyenoord
- AEK Athens – Roma
- Aston Villa – Borussia Dortmund
- Inter – Liverpool
- Porto – Slavia Praha
- Lille – Slovan Bratislava
- Real Madrid – LASK
- Stuttgart – Club Brugge
- Sabah – Napoli
- Como – Paris Saint-Germain
- Manchester United – Bayern München
- Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Lens – Manchester City
- Real Betis – Arsenal
- Sporting CP – Barcelona
- Viking – PSV Eindhoven