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Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 18:45

Fenerbahçe31st, 2 pts
–Matchday 7
Villarreal19th, 3 pts
35%Fenerbahçe win
26%Draw
39%Villarreal win

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Villarreal 39%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 30% now: a win would take it to 51%, a defeat to 13%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 66%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFenerbahçe: top 8Fenerbahçe: throughVillarreal: top 8Villarreal: through
Now<1%30%5%82%
Fenerbahçe win1%51%1%66%
Draw<1%25%3%80%
Villarreal win0%13%11%96%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Fenerbahçe clean sheet
29%Villarreal clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Fenerbahçe

2 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1DRoma H1–1
  2. MD2LAston Villa A0–6
  3. MD3DSlavia Praha H2–2
  4. MD4Liverpool H4 November
  5. MD5Shakhtar Donetsk A25 November
  6. MD6LASK A9 December
  7. MD7Villarreal H this match20 January
  8. MD8Atlético de Madrid A27 January

Villarreal

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LBorussia Dortmund A2–3
  2. MD2WNapoli H3–1
  3. MD3LLiverpool A3–4
  4. MD4Paris Saint-Germain H3 November
  5. MD5Slavia Praha A25 November
  6. MD6Sabah H8 December
  7. MD7Fenerbahçe A this match20 January
  8. MD8Manchester United H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal?

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 35% chance of winning and Villarreal 39%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fenerbahçe and 1.3 for Villarreal, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Fenerbahçe?

Fenerbahçe's qualification chance is 30% right now. A win would make it 51%, a draw 25% and a defeat 13%.

What does this match mean for Villarreal?

Villarreal's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 80% and a defeat 66%.

When is Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal played?

Wednesday 20 January, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →