Knockout Math
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LASK vs Liverpool: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October, 18:45

LASK27th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Liverpool14th, 3 pts
8%LASK win
15%Draw
77%Liverpool win

The model gives LASK a 8% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Liverpool 77%. LASK's chance of going through is 11% now: a win would take it to 35%, a defeat to 8%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

LASK: top 8LASK: throughLiverpool: top 8Liverpool: through
Now<1%11%77%>99%
LASK win1%35%50%98%
Draw<1%14%62%99%
Liverpool win<1%8%82%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–311%
0–111%
1–29%
1–37%
1–17%

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