Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
Liverpool beat Villarreal 4–3 at home on matchday 3. After the match, Liverpool are 3rd with 9 points, with a 100% chance of going through (top 8: 92%). Villarreal are now 19th with 3 points, with a 82% chance of going through (top 8: 5%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 3.
The outcome the model rated most likely (67%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (12%); the actual score had a <1% chance. Expected goals before the match: Liverpool 2.1, Villarreal 0.8.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 3 compared with now, after all results so far.
| Team | Position | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 5th → 3rd | >99% → 100% | 85% → 92% |
| Villarreal | 14th → 19th | 85% → 82% | 10% → 5% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Liverpool
- MD1WAtlético de Madrid H2–1
- MD2WLASK A6–3
- MD3WVillarreal H this match4–3
- MD4Fenerbahçe A4 November
- MD5Club Brugge A25 November
- MD6Porto H9 December
- MD7Inter A19 January
- MD8Lens H27 January
Villarreal
- MD1LBorussia Dortmund A2–3
- MD2WNapoli H3–1
- MD3LLiverpool A this match3–4
- MD4Paris Saint-Germain H3 November
- MD5Slavia Praha A25 November
- MD6Sabah H8 December
- MD7Fenerbahçe A20 January
- MD8Manchester United H27 January
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The match finished 4–3 (Champions League, matchday 3).
Was Liverpool vs Villarreal a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Liverpool a 67% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Villarreal 13%. The outcome the model rated most likely (67%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (12%); the actual score had a <1% chance.
How did the result change Liverpool's chances?
Before matchday 3, Liverpool had a >99% chance of going through (top 8: 85%). Now it is 100% (top 8: 92%).
How did the result change Villarreal's chances?
Before matchday 3, Villarreal had a 85% chance of going through (top 8: 10%). Now it is 82% (top 8: 5%).
When was Liverpool vs Villarreal played?
Tuesday 20 October, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha (2–2)
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund (1–2)
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava (4–0)
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven (0–1)
- Manchester City – AEK Athens (5–1)
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona (4–2)
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt (4–3)
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid (1–1)
- Como – Manchester United (4–1)
- Lille – Galatasaray (2–4)
- Aston Villa – Viking (3–1)
- Club Brugge – Lens (3–0)
- Bayern München – Arsenal (2–2)
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk (1–0)
- Real Madrid – Leipzig (4–1)
- Real Betis – Feyenoord (1–0)
- Sporting CP – LASK (2–3)