Knockout Math
Latviski

Sabah vs Napoli: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 18:45

Sabah34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Napoli28th, 0 pts
9%Sabah win
16%Draw
75%Napoli win

The model gives Sabah a 9% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Napoli 75%. Sabah's chance of going through is 2% now: a win would take it to 9%, a defeat to 1%. Napoli's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 71%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sabah: top 8Sabah: throughNapoli: top 8Napoli: through
Now<1%2%21%90%
Sabah win<1%9%5%71%
Draw0%2%9%81%
Napoli win0%1%26%94%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–111%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%

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