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Sabah vs Napoli: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Wednesday 20 January, 18:45

Sabah25th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Napoli22nd, 3 pts
11%Sabah win
17%Draw
72%Napoli win

The model gives Sabah a 11% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Napoli 72%. Sabah's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 19%, a defeat to 1%. Napoli's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 65%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSabah: top 8Sabah: throughNapoli: top 8Napoli: through
Now<1%4%9%89%
Sabah win<1%19%1%65%
Draw0%4%2%79%
Napoli win0%1%12%95%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.7 – 2.3Expected goals
47%Both teams score
58%3 or more goals
10%Sabah clean sheet
48%Napoli clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–111%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sabah

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LManchester United A0–4
  2. MD2WSlavia Praha H2–0
  3. MD3LBorussia Dortmund H1–2
  4. MD4Viking A4 November
  5. MD5Barcelona H25 November
  6. MD6Villarreal A8 December
  7. MD7Napoli H this match20 January
  8. MD8Arsenal A27 January

Napoli

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LArsenal H0–1
  2. MD2LVillarreal A1–3
  3. MD3WBodø/Glimt H4–3
  4. MD4Porto A4 November
  5. MD5Manchester City A24 November
  6. MD6Club Brugge H8 December
  7. MD7Sabah A this match20 January
  8. MD8Viking H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sabah vs Napoli?

The model gives Sabah a 11% chance of winning and Napoli 72%, with a draw at 17%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (13%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Sabah vs Napoli?

The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sabah and 2.3 for Napoli, and the match has 3 or more goals in 58% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sabah?

Sabah's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 19%, a draw 4% and a defeat 1%.

What does this match mean for Napoli?

Napoli's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 79% and a defeat 65%.

When is Sabah vs Napoli played?

Wednesday 20 January, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →