Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
Aston Villa11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 7
Borussia Dortmund12th, 3 pts
45%Aston Villa win
26%Draw
29%Borussia Dortmund win
The model gives Aston Villa a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Borussia Dortmund 29%. Aston Villa's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 89%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 92%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Aston Villa: top 8 | Aston Villa: through | Borussia Dortmund: top 8 | Borussia Dortmund: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 34% | 95% | 34% | 95% |
| Aston Villa win | 50% | 99% | 20% | 92% |
| Draw | 27% | 95% | 33% | 96% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 16% | 89% | 57% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – Atlético de Madrid
- Galatasaray – Feyenoord
- AEK Athens – Roma
- Inter – Liverpool
- Porto – Slavia Praha
- Lille – Slovan Bratislava
- Real Madrid – LASK
- Stuttgart – Club Brugge
- Fenerbahçe – Villarreal
- Sabah – Napoli
- Como – Paris Saint-Germain
- Manchester United – Bayern München
- Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Lens – Manchester City
- Real Betis – Arsenal
- Sporting CP – Barcelona
- Viking – PSV Eindhoven