Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
The model gives Aston Villa a 49% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Borussia Dortmund 26%. Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 37%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 91%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Aston Villa: top 8 | Aston Villa: through | Borussia Dortmund: top 8 | Borussia Dortmund: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 62% | 100% | 18% | 95% |
| Aston Villa win | 81% | 100% | 7% | 91% |
| Draw | 54% | 100% | 16% | 96% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 37% | >99% | 39% | >99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Aston Villa
- MD1WClub Brugge A3–2
- MD2WFenerbahçe H6–0
- MD3WViking H3–1
- MD4Barcelona A3 November
- MD5Galatasaray A24 November
- MD6Paris Saint-Germain H8 December
- MD7Borussia Dortmund H this match19 January
- MD8Slavia Praha A27 January
Borussia Dortmund
- MD1WVillarreal H3–2
- MD2LBodø/Glimt A0–1
- MD3WSabah A2–1
- MD4Real Betis H4 November
- MD5Arsenal A24 November
- MD6Inter H9 December
- MD7Aston Villa A this match19 January
- MD8AEK Athens H27 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Aston Villa vs Dortmund?
The model gives Aston Villa a 49% chance of winning and Borussia Dortmund 26%, with a draw at 25%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Dortmund?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Aston Villa and 1.1 for Borussia Dortmund, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.
What does this match mean for Aston Villa?
Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 81%, a draw 54% and a defeat 37%.
What does this match mean for Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 96% and a defeat 91%.
When is Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund played?
Tuesday 19 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Bodø/Glimt – Atlético de Madrid
- Galatasaray – Feyenoord
- AEK Athens – Roma
- Inter – Liverpool
- Porto – Slavia Praha
- Lille – Slovan Bratislava
- Real Madrid – LASK
- Stuttgart – Club Brugge
- Fenerbahçe – Villarreal
- Sabah – Napoli
- Como – Paris Saint-Germain
- Manchester United – Bayern München
- Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Lens – Manchester City
- Real Betis – Arsenal
- Sporting CP – Barcelona
- Viking – PSV Eindhoven