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Lille vs Slovan Bratislava: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

Lille35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Slovan Bratislava36th, 0 pts
68%Lille win
19%Draw
13%Slovan Bratislava win

The model gives Lille a 68% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Slovan Bratislava 13%. Lille's chance of going through is 14% now: a win would take it to 19%, a defeat to 3%. Slovan Bratislava's chance of going through is 3% now: a win would take it to 11%, a defeat to 1%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLille: top 8Lille: throughSlovan Bratislava: top 8Slovan Bratislava: through
Now<1%14%0%3%
Lille win<1%19%0%1%
Draw0%5%0%3%
Slovan Bratislava win0%3%0%11%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.1 – 0.8Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
45%Lille clean sheet
12%Slovan Bratislava clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lille

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1LReal Betis H2–3
  2. MD2LArsenal A0–3
  3. MD3LGalatasaray H2–4
  4. MD4Bodø/Glimt A3 November
  5. MD5Bayern München H25 November
  6. MD6Stuttgart A9 December
  7. MD7Slovan Bratislava H this match19 January
  8. MD8Roma A27 January

Slovan Bratislava

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -12

  1. MD1LParis Saint-Germain A1–6
  2. MD2LStuttgart H0–3
  3. MD3LRoma A0–4
  4. MD4LASK A3 November
  5. MD5Real Betis H24 November
  6. MD6Shakhtar Donetsk H9 December
  7. MD7Lille A this match19 January
  8. MD8Inter H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lille vs Slovan Bratislava?

The model gives Lille a 68% chance of winning and Slovan Bratislava 13%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Lille vs Slovan Bratislava?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lille and 0.8 for Slovan Bratislava, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lille?

Lille's qualification chance is 14% right now. A win would make it 19%, a draw 5% and a defeat 3%.

What does this match mean for Slovan Bratislava?

Slovan Bratislava's qualification chance is 3% right now. A win would make it 11%, a draw 3% and a defeat 1%.

When is Lille vs Slovan Bratislava played?

Tuesday 19 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →