Knockout Math
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Lille vs Slovan Bratislava: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Tuesday 19 January, 21:00

Lille24th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
69%Lille win
19%Draw
12%Slovan Bratislava win

The model gives Lille a 69% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Slovan Bratislava 12%. Lille's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 55%, a defeat to 21%. Slovan Bratislava's chance of going through is 11% now: a win would take it to 31%, a defeat to 8%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lille: top 8Lille: throughSlovan Bratislava: top 8Slovan Bratislava: through
Now2%47%<1%11%
Lille win2%55%<1%8%
Draw1%31%<1%13%
Slovan Bratislava win<1%21%1%31%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%

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