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Liverpool vs Lens: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Liverpool3rd, 9 pts
–Matchday 8
Lens27th, 3 pts
76%Liverpool win
16%Draw
9%Lens win

The model gives Liverpool a 76% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Lens 9%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 74%. Lens's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 32%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLiverpool: top 8Liverpool: throughLens: top 8Lens: through
Now92%100%<1%38%
Liverpool win96%100%<1%32%
Draw84%100%1%46%
Lens win74%100%3%75%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.4 – 0.7Expected goals
45%Both teams score
60%3 or more goals
50%Liverpool clean sheet
9%Lens clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–011%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Liverpool

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WAtlético de Madrid H2–1
  2. MD2WLASK A6–3
  3. MD3WVillarreal H4–3
  4. MD4Fenerbahçe A4 November
  5. MD5Club Brugge A25 November
  6. MD6Porto H9 December
  7. MD7Inter A19 January
  8. MD8Lens H this match27 January

Lens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1WSlavia Praha A3–2
  2. MD2LSporting CP H0–2
  3. MD3LClub Brugge A0–3
  4. MD4Como H4 November
  5. MD5Leipzig A24 November
  6. MD6Bodø/Glimt H9 December
  7. MD7Manchester City H20 January
  8. MD8Liverpool A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Liverpool vs Lens?

The model gives Liverpool a 76% chance of winning and Lens 9%, with a draw at 16%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Lens?

The model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance. Expected goals are 2.4 for Liverpool and 0.7 for Lens, and the match has 3 or more goals in 60% of cases.

What does this match mean for Liverpool?

Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 84% and a defeat 74%.

What does this match mean for Lens?

Lens's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 46% and a defeat 32%.

When is Liverpool vs Lens played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →