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Paris Saint-Germain vs Galatasaray: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Paris Saint-Germain1st, 9 pts
–Matchday 8
Galatasaray23rd, 3 pts
80%Paris Saint-Germain win
13%Draw
7%Galatasaray win

The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 80% chance of winning, a draw 13% and Galatasaray 7%. Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 83%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 51%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeParis Saint-Germain: top 8Paris Saint-Germain: throughGalatasaray: top 8Galatasaray: through
Now96%100%1%55%
Paris Saint-Germain win98%100%<1%51%
Draw91%100%2%66%
Galatasaray win83%100%8%85%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.6 – 0.6Expected goals
44%Both teams score
63%3 or more goals
53%Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet
7%Galatasaray clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–012%
1–010%
2–18%
4–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Paris Saint-Germain

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +9

  1. MD1WSlovan Bratislava H6–1
  2. MD2WManchester City A4–2
  3. MD3WBarcelona H4–2
  4. MD4Villarreal A3 November
  5. MD5Roma H25 November
  6. MD6Aston Villa A8 December
  7. MD7Como A20 January
  8. MD8Galatasaray H this match27 January

Galatasaray

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LSporting CP A1–3
  2. MD2LBarcelona H1–4
  3. MD3WLille A4–2
  4. MD4Stuttgart H3 November
  5. MD5Aston Villa H24 November
  6. MD6AEK Athens A8 December
  7. MD7Feyenoord H19 January
  8. MD8Paris Saint-Germain A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in PSG vs Galatasaray?

The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 80% chance of winning and Galatasaray 7%, with a draw at 13%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in PSG vs Galatasaray?

The model gives both teams scoring a 44% chance. Expected goals are 2.6 for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.6 for Galatasaray, and the match has 3 or more goals in 63% of cases.

What does this match mean for Paris Saint-Germain?

Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 91% and a defeat 83%.

What does this match mean for Galatasaray?

Galatasaray's qualification chance is 55% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 66% and a defeat 51%.

When is Paris Saint-Germain vs Galatasaray played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →