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Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Slavia Praha32nd, 1 pt
–Matchday 8
Aston Villa2nd, 9 pts
18%Slavia Praha win
23%Draw
59%Aston Villa win

The model gives Slavia Praha a 18% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Aston Villa 59%. Slavia Praha's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 13%, a defeat to 1%. Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 37%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSlavia Praha: top 8Slavia Praha: throughAston Villa: top 8Aston Villa: through
Now<1%4%62%100%
Slavia Praha win<1%13%37%>99%
Draw0%3%50%100%
Aston Villa win0%1%75%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
16%Slavia Praha clean sheet
40%Aston Villa clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Slavia Praha

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LLens H2–3
  2. MD2LSabah A0–2
  3. MD3DFenerbahçe A2–2
  4. MD4Arsenal H4 November
  5. MD5Villarreal H25 November
  6. MD6Bayern München A8 December
  7. MD7Porto A19 January
  8. MD8Aston Villa H this match27 January

Aston Villa

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +9

  1. MD1WClub Brugge A3–2
  2. MD2WFenerbahçe H6–0
  3. MD3WViking H3–1
  4. MD4Barcelona A3 November
  5. MD5Galatasaray A24 November
  6. MD6Paris Saint-Germain H8 December
  7. MD7Borussia Dortmund H19 January
  8. MD8Slavia Praha A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Slavia Prague vs Aston Villa?

The model gives Slavia Praha a 18% chance of winning and Aston Villa 59%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).

Will both teams score in Slavia Prague vs Aston Villa?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Slavia Praha and 1.8 for Aston Villa, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Slavia Praha?

Slavia Praha's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 13%, a draw 3% and a defeat 1%.

What does this match mean for Aston Villa?

Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 50% and a defeat 37%.

When is Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →