Knockout Math
Latviski

Aston Villa vs Viking: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00

Aston Villa11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Viking30th, 0 pts
77%Aston Villa win
15%Draw
8%Viking win

The model gives Aston Villa a 77% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Viking 8%. Aston Villa's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 83%. Viking's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 32%, a defeat to 7%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Aston Villa: top 8Aston Villa: throughViking: top 8Viking: through
Now34%95%<1%10%
Aston Villa win39%97%<1%7%
Draw19%89%<1%12%
Viking win13%83%<1%32%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–011%
1–011%
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%

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