Knockout Math
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Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

–Matchday 8
AEK Athens16th, 3 pts
68%Borussia Dortmund win
19%Draw
13%AEK Athens win

The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 68% chance of winning, a draw 19% and AEK Athens 13%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 42% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 35%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Borussia Dortmund: top 8Borussia Dortmund: throughAEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: through
Now34%95%2%42%
Borussia Dortmund win42%98%1%35%
Draw22%91%2%47%
AEK Athens win12%85%6%73%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%

Other matchday 8 fixtures