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Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Borussia Dortmund13th, 6 pts
–Matchday 8
AEK Athens29th, 3 pts
69%Borussia Dortmund win
19%Draw
12%AEK Athens win

The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 69% chance of winning, a draw 19% and AEK Athens 12%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 79%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 50%, a defeat to 13%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBorussia Dortmund: top 8Borussia Dortmund: throughAEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: through
Now18%95%<1%19%
Borussia Dortmund win23%99%<1%13%
Draw8%89%<1%21%
AEK Athens win4%79%<1%50%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.2 – 0.8Expected goals
48%Both teams score
56%3 or more goals
46%Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
12%AEK Athens clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Borussia Dortmund

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WVillarreal H3–2
  2. MD2LBodø/Glimt A0–1
  3. MD3WSabah A2–1
  4. MD4Real Betis H4 November
  5. MD5Arsenal A24 November
  6. MD6Inter H9 December
  7. MD7Aston Villa A19 January
  8. MD8AEK Athens H this match27 January

AEK Athens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1WLASK H1–0
  2. MD2LShakhtar Donetsk A1–3
  3. MD3LManchester City A1–5
  4. MD4Real Madrid H4 November
  5. MD5Como A24 November
  6. MD6Galatasaray H8 December
  7. MD7Roma H19 January
  8. MD8Borussia Dortmund A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Dortmund vs AEK Athens?

The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 69% chance of winning and AEK Athens 12%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Dortmund vs AEK Athens?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 2.2 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.8 for AEK Athens, and the match has 3 or more goals in 56% of cases.

What does this match mean for Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 89% and a defeat 79%.

What does this match mean for AEK Athens?

AEK Athens's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 50%, a draw 21% and a defeat 13%.

When is Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →