Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
Borussia Dortmund12th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
AEK Athens16th, 3 pts
68%Borussia Dortmund win
19%Draw
13%AEK Athens win
The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 68% chance of winning, a draw 19% and AEK Athens 13%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 42% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 35%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Borussia Dortmund: top 8 | Borussia Dortmund: through | AEK Athens: top 8 | AEK Athens: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 34% | 95% | 2% | 42% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 42% | 98% | 1% | 35% |
| Draw | 22% | 91% | 2% | 47% |
| AEK Athens win | 12% | 85% | 6% | 73% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Arsenal – Sabah
- Roma – Lille
- Atlético de Madrid – Fenerbahçe
- Club Brugge – Bodø/Glimt
- Bayern München – Real Betis
- Barcelona – Como
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Real Madrid
- Feyenoord – Leipzig
- LASK – Porto
- Liverpool – Lens
- Manchester City – Sporting CP
- Paris Saint-Germain – Galatasaray
- PSV Eindhoven – Stuttgart
- Slavia Praha – Aston Villa
- Napoli – Viking
- Villarreal – Manchester United
- Slovan Bratislava – Inter