Arsenal vs Lille: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
Arsenal15th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Lille24th, 0 pts
73%Arsenal win
17%Draw
10%Lille win
The model gives Arsenal a 73% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Lille 10%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 50%. Lille's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Arsenal: top 8 | Arsenal: through | Lille: top 8 | Lille: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 77% | >99% | 2% | 47% |
| Arsenal win | 84% | 100% | 1% | 41% |
| Draw | 63% | 99% | 2% | 53% |
| Lille win | 50% | 99% | 8% | 77% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Lens – Sporting CP
- Sabah – Slavia Praha
- Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United
- Inter – Club Brugge
- Galatasaray – Barcelona
- Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven
- Viking – Bayern München
- Villarreal – Napoli
- Feyenoord – Como
- LASK – Liverpool
- Roma – Real Madrid
- Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe
- Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens
- Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund
- Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain
- Real Betis – Porto
- Slovan Bratislava – Stuttgart