Knockout Math
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Arsenal vs Lille: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October, 21:00

Arsenal15th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Lille24th, 0 pts
73%Arsenal win
17%Draw
10%Lille win

The model gives Arsenal a 73% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Lille 10%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 50%. Lille's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Arsenal: top 8Arsenal: throughLille: top 8Lille: through
Now77%>99%2%47%
Arsenal win84%100%1%41%
Draw63%99%2%53%
Lille win50%99%8%77%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

Other matchday 2 fixtures