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Arsenal vs Sabah: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Arsenal7th, 7 pts
–Matchday 8
Sabah25th, 3 pts
94%Arsenal win
4%Draw
1%Sabah win

The model gives Arsenal a 94% chance of winning, a draw 4% and Sabah 1%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 52%. Sabah's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 21%, a defeat to 3%. The most likely score is 3–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeArsenal: top 8Arsenal: throughSabah: top 8Sabah: through
Now86%100%<1%4%
Arsenal win88%100%<1%3%
Draw66%>99%0%7%
Sabah win52%100%0%21%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

4.0 – 0.4Expected goals
34%Both teams score
81%3 or more goals
66%Arsenal clean sheet
2%Sabah clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

3–013%
4–013%
5–010%
2–010%
6–07%
3–15%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Arsenal

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WNapoli A1–0
  2. MD2WLille H3–0
  3. MD3DBayern München A2–2
  4. MD4Slavia Praha A4 November
  5. MD5Borussia Dortmund H24 November
  6. MD6Real Madrid H9 December
  7. MD7Real Betis A20 January
  8. MD8Sabah H this match27 January

Sabah

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LManchester United A0–4
  2. MD2WSlavia Praha H2–0
  3. MD3LBorussia Dortmund H1–2
  4. MD4Viking A4 November
  5. MD5Barcelona H25 November
  6. MD6Villarreal A8 December
  7. MD7Napoli H20 January
  8. MD8Arsenal A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Arsenal vs Sabah?

The model gives Arsenal a 94% chance of winning and Sabah 1%, with a draw at 4%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 3–0 (13%), followed by 4–0 (13%).

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Sabah?

The model gives both teams scoring a 34% chance. Expected goals are 4.0 for Arsenal and 0.4 for Sabah, and the match has 3 or more goals in 81% of cases.

What does this match mean for Arsenal?

Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 88%, a draw 66% and a defeat 52%.

What does this match mean for Sabah?

Sabah's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 21%, a draw 7% and a defeat 3%.

When is Arsenal vs Sabah played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →