Knockout Math
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Arsenal vs Sabah: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Arsenal15th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Sabah34th, 0 pts
94%Arsenal win
5%Draw
1%Sabah win

The model gives Arsenal a 94% chance of winning, a draw 5% and Sabah 1%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 42%. Sabah's chance of going through is 2% now: a win would take it to 9%, a defeat to 2%. The most likely score is 3–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Arsenal: top 8Arsenal: throughSabah: top 8Sabah: through
Now77%>99%<1%2%
Arsenal win78%>99%<1%2%
Draw55%99%<1%4%
Sabah win42%98%0%9%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

3–013%
4–013%
5–010%
2–010%
6–07%
3–15%

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