Lyon vs Union SG: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00
Lyon10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Union SG5th, 3 pts
50%Lyon win
25%Draw
25%Union SG win
The model gives Lyon a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Union SG 25%. Lyon's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 88%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lyon: top 8 | Lyon: through | Union SG: top 8 | Union SG: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 44% | 94% | 40% | 92% |
| Lyon win | 60% | 98% | 27% | 88% |
| Draw | 35% | 93% | 41% | 94% |
| Union SG win | 23% | 86% | 64% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- AZ Alkmaar – Sturm Graz
- Ararat-Armenia – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Crystal Palace
- Marseille – Celta
- Omonia – Celtic
- Anderlecht – Hoffenheim
- Rennes – GNK Dinamo
- Milan – Sunderland
- Bournemouth – Viktoria Plzeň
- Leverkusen – Beşiktaş
- Salzburg – Sparta Praha
- Lech Poznań – Ferencváros
- Celje – Olympiacos
- Levski Sofia – Lillestrøm
- Real Sociedad – Torreense
- Benfica – OFI Crete