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Lyon vs Union SG: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Lyon8th, 6 pts
–Matchday 6
Union SG12th, 4 pts
49%Lyon win
25%Draw
25%Union SG win

The model gives Lyon a 49% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Union SG 25%. Lyon's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. Union SG's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 93%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLyon: top 8Lyon: throughUnion SG: top 8Union SG: through
Now59%99%33%96%
Lyon win75%>99%20%93%
Draw51%99%32%97%
Union SG win36%98%58%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
35%Lyon clean sheet
21%Union SG clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lyon

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAnderlecht A2–1
  2. MD2WCrystal Palace H3–2
  3. MD3Hoffenheim A22 October
  4. MD4Real Sociedad A5 November
  5. MD5Lillestrøm H26 November
  6. MD6Union SG H this match10 December
  7. MD7Jagiellonia A21 January
  8. MD8Leverkusen H28 January

Union SG

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WViktoria Plzeň A3–0
  2. MD2DReal Sociedad H1–1
  3. MD3Hapoel Beer-Sheva H22 October
  4. MD4Celta A5 November
  5. MD5Lech Poznań H26 November
  6. MD6Lyon A this match10 December
  7. MD7Beşiktaş A21 January
  8. MD8Celtic H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lyon vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

The model gives Lyon a 49% chance of winning and Union SG 25%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lyon vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lyon and 1.1 for Union SG, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lyon?

Lyon's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

What does this match mean for Union SG?

Union SG's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

When is Lyon vs Union SG played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →