Union SG vs Real Sociedad: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45
Union SG5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Real Sociedad22nd, 0 pts
41%Union SG win
26%Draw
33%Real Sociedad win
The model gives Union SG a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Real Sociedad 33%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 58%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Union SG: top 8 | Union SG: through | Real Sociedad: top 8 | Real Sociedad: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 40% | 92% | 12% | 71% |
| Union SG win | 57% | 98% | 4% | 58% |
| Draw | 35% | 91% | 9% | 71% |
| Real Sociedad win | 23% | 86% | 24% | 87% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm
- AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Milan
- Lech Poznań – Leverkusen
- Celje – Omonia
- Lyon – Crystal Palace
- Torreense – Sunderland
- Bournemouth – Sturm Graz
- Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň
- GNK Dinamo – Anderlecht
- Jagiellonia – Ararat-Armenia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Levski Sofia
- Marseille – Olympiacos
- Celta – Juventus
- Benfica – Celtic
- Rennes – OFI Crete
- Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş