Knockout Math
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Union SG vs Real Sociedad: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45

Union SG5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Real Sociedad22nd, 0 pts
41%Union SG win
26%Draw
33%Real Sociedad win

The model gives Union SG a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Real Sociedad 33%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 58%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Union SG: top 8Union SG: throughReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: through
Now40%92%12%71%
Union SG win57%98%4%58%
Draw35%91%9%71%
Real Sociedad win23%86%24%87%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

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