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Levski Sofia vs Lillestrøm: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Levski Sofia25th, 1 pt
–Matchday 6
Lillestrøm23rd, 1 pt
46%Levski Sofia win
26%Draw
28%Lillestrøm win

The model gives Levski Sofia a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lillestrøm 28%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 24% now: a win would take it to 38%, a defeat to 9%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 18% now: a win would take it to 36%, a defeat to 8%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLevski Sofia: top 8Levski Sofia: throughLillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: through
Now<1%24%<1%18%
Levski Sofia win1%38%<1%8%
Draw<1%17%<1%15%
Lillestrøm win<1%9%<1%36%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
33%Levski Sofia clean sheet
22%Lillestrøm clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Levski Sofia

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LSalzburg H0–1
  2. MD2DN.E.C. Nijmegen A1–1
  3. MD3Viktoria Plzeň A22 October
  4. MD4Jagiellonia H5 November
  5. MD5Marseille A26 November
  6. MD6Lillestrøm H this match10 December
  7. MD7Milan H21 January
  8. MD8Sunderland A28 January

Lillestrøm

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTorreense H1–2
  2. MD2DSparta Praha A1–1
  3. MD3Real Sociedad H22 October
  4. MD4Viktoria Plzeň H5 November
  5. MD5Lyon A26 November
  6. MD6Levski Sofia A this match10 December
  7. MD7Bournemouth H21 January
  8. MD8Celta A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Levski Sofia vs Lillestrøm?

The model gives Levski Sofia a 46% chance of winning and Lillestrøm 28%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Lillestrøm?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Levski Sofia and 1.1 for Lillestrøm, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Levski Sofia?

Levski Sofia's qualification chance is 24% right now. A win would make it 38%, a draw 17% and a defeat 9%.

What does this match mean for Lillestrøm?

Lillestrøm's qualification chance is 18% right now. A win would make it 36%, a draw 15% and a defeat 8%.

When is Levski Sofia vs Lillestrøm played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →