Knockout Math
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Levski Sofia vs Lillestrøm: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Levski Sofia27th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Lillestrøm24th, 0 pts
45%Levski Sofia win
26%Draw
29%Lillestrøm win

The model gives Levski Sofia a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lillestrøm 29%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 21% now: a win would take it to 33%, a defeat to 8%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 15% now: a win would take it to 30%, a defeat to 7%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Levski Sofia: top 8Levski Sofia: throughLillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: through
Now1%21%<1%15%
Levski Sofia win1%33%<1%7%
Draw<1%13%<1%12%
Lillestrøm win<1%8%1%30%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Other matchday 6 fixtures