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Rennes vs GNK Dinamo: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Rennes13th, 4 pts
–Matchday 6
GNK Dinamo14th, 4 pts
54%Rennes win
24%Draw
22%GNK Dinamo win

The model gives Rennes a 54% chance of winning, a draw 24% and GNK Dinamo 22%. Rennes's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 79%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 67%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeRennes: top 8Rennes: throughGNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: through
Now21%91%8%76%
Rennes win30%97%3%67%
Draw13%88%7%81%
GNK Dinamo win6%79%20%94%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%Rennes clean sheet
19%GNK Dinamo clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Rennes

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DSturm Graz A0–0
  2. MD2WOFI Crete H2–1
  3. MD3Juventus A22 October
  4. MD4Olympiacos H5 November
  5. MD5N.E.C. Nijmegen A26 November
  6. MD6GNK Dinamo H this match10 December
  7. MD7Omonia H21 January
  8. MD8Sparta Praha A28 January

GNK Dinamo

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DHapoel Beer-Sheva A0–0
  2. MD2WAnderlecht H1–0
  3. MD3N.E.C. Nijmegen H22 October
  4. MD4Sunderland A5 November
  5. MD5Leverkusen H26 November
  6. MD6Rennes A this match10 December
  7. MD7AZ Alkmaar A21 January
  8. MD8Sturm Graz H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Rennes vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model gives Rennes a 54% chance of winning and GNK Dinamo 22%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Rennes vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rennes and 1.0 for GNK Dinamo, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Rennes?

Rennes's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 88% and a defeat 79%.

What does this match mean for GNK Dinamo?

GNK Dinamo's qualification chance is 76% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 81% and a defeat 67%.

When is Rennes vs GNK Dinamo played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →