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Anderlecht vs Hoffenheim: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Anderlecht28th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Hoffenheim30th, 0 pts
35%Anderlecht win
26%Draw
39%Hoffenheim win

The model gives Anderlecht a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Hoffenheim 39%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 58%, a defeat to 22%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 29%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAnderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: throughHoffenheim: top 8Hoffenheim: through
Now1%38%2%47%
Anderlecht win2%58%<1%29%
Draw<1%34%1%41%
Hoffenheim win<1%22%4%68%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Anderlecht clean sheet
29%Hoffenheim clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Anderlecht

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LLyon H1–2
  2. MD2LGNK Dinamo A0–1
  3. MD3Jagiellonia A22 October
  4. MD4Salzburg H5 November
  5. MD5OFI Crete A26 November
  6. MD6Hoffenheim H this match10 December
  7. MD7Sunderland H21 January
  8. MD8Marseille A28 January

Hoffenheim

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LOFI Crete A0–2
  2. MD2LBeşiktaş H2–3
  3. MD3Lyon H22 October
  4. MD4Crystal Palace A5 November
  5. MD5Sturm Graz H26 November
  6. MD6Anderlecht A this match10 December
  7. MD7Olympiacos A21 January
  8. MD8Ferencváros H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Anderlecht vs Hoffenheim?

The model gives Anderlecht a 35% chance of winning and Hoffenheim 39%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Hoffenheim?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Anderlecht and 1.3 for Hoffenheim, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Anderlecht?

Anderlecht's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 58%, a draw 34% and a defeat 22%.

What does this match mean for Hoffenheim?

Hoffenheim's qualification chance is 47% right now. A win would make it 68%, a draw 41% and a defeat 29%.

When is Anderlecht vs Hoffenheim played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →