Knockout Math
Live
EN

Leverkusen vs Beşiktaş: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Leverkusen2nd, 6 pts
–Matchday 6
Beşiktaş4th, 6 pts
62%Leverkusen win
22%Draw
16%Beşiktaş win

The model gives Leverkusen a 62% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Beşiktaş 16%. Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 63%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: throughBeşiktaş: top 8Beşiktaş: through
Now83%>99%46%98%
Leverkusen win91%100%37%97%
Draw76%>99%50%99%
Beşiktaş win63%99%73%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
42%Leverkusen clean sheet
15%Beşiktaş clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Leverkusen

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WCelje H2–0
  2. MD2WLech Poznań A4–0
  3. MD3OFI Crete A22 October
  4. MD4Marseille H5 November
  5. MD5GNK Dinamo A26 November
  6. MD6Beşiktaş H this match10 December
  7. MD7Salzburg H21 January
  8. MD8Lyon A28 January

Beşiktaş

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WMarseille H4–1
  2. MD2WHoffenheim A3–2
  3. MD3Crystal Palace H22 October
  4. MD4Celtic A5 November
  5. MD5Hapoel Beer-Sheva H26 November
  6. MD6Leverkusen A this match10 December
  7. MD7Union SG H21 January
  8. MD8Omonia A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs Beşiktaş?

The model gives Leverkusen a 62% chance of winning and Beşiktaş 16%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Beşiktaş?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Leverkusen and 0.9 for Beşiktaş, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Leverkusen?

Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 76% and a defeat 63%.

What does this match mean for Beşiktaş?

Beşiktaş's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 97%.

When is Leverkusen vs Beşiktaş played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →