Marseille vs Celta: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45
Marseille32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Celta26th, 0 pts
53%Marseille win
24%Draw
23%Celta win
The model gives Marseille a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Celta 23%. Marseille's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 67%. Celta's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 54%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Marseille: top 8 | Marseille: through | Celta: top 8 | Celta: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 22% | 82% | 9% | 64% |
| Marseille win | 32% | 91% | 4% | 54% |
| Draw | 14% | 78% | 8% | 65% |
| Celta win | 8% | 67% | 21% | 85% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- AZ Alkmaar – Sturm Graz
- Ararat-Armenia – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Crystal Palace
- Omonia – Celtic
- Anderlecht – Hoffenheim
- Rennes – GNK Dinamo
- Milan – Sunderland
- Bournemouth – Viktoria Plzeň
- Leverkusen – Beşiktaş
- Salzburg – Sparta Praha
- Lech Poznań – Ferencváros
- Celje – Olympiacos
- Lyon – Union SG
- Levski Sofia – Lillestrøm
- Real Sociedad – Torreense
- Benfica – OFI Crete