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Marseille vs Celta: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Marseille32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Celta29th, 0 pts
51%Marseille win
25%Draw
24%Celta win

The model gives Marseille a 51% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Celta 24%. Marseille's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 46%. Celta's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMarseille: top 8Marseille: throughCelta: top 8Celta: through
Now4%68%2%54%
Marseille win7%82%<1%41%
Draw2%60%1%57%
Celta win<1%46%7%78%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
36%Marseille clean sheet
20%Celta clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Marseille

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LBeşiktaş A1–4
  2. MD2LOlympiacos H0–1
  3. MD3Sturm Graz A22 October
  4. MD4Leverkusen A5 November
  5. MD5Levski Sofia H26 November
  6. MD6Celta H this match10 December
  7. MD7Celtic A21 January
  8. MD8Anderlecht H28 January

Celta

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LOmonia A0–1
  2. MD2LJuventus H1–2
  3. MD3Celtic A22 October
  4. MD4Union SG H5 November
  5. MD5Bournemouth H26 November
  6. MD6Marseille A this match10 December
  7. MD7Hapoel Beer-Sheva A21 January
  8. MD8Lillestrøm H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Marseille vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives Marseille a 51% chance of winning and Celta 24%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marseille and 1.0 for Celta, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Marseille?

Marseille's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 82%, a draw 60% and a defeat 46%.

What does this match mean for Celta?

Celta's qualification chance is 54% right now. A win would make it 78%, a draw 57% and a defeat 41%.

When is Marseille vs Celta played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →