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Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Juventus: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Hapoel Beer-Sheva24th, 1 pt
–Matchday 6
Juventus1st, 6 pts
13%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win
20%Draw
67%Juventus win

The model gives Hapoel Beer-Sheva a 13% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Juventus 67%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 20% now: a win would take it to 47%, a defeat to 14%. Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 72%. The most likely score is 0–2 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8Hapoel Beer-Sheva: throughJuventus: top 8Juventus: through
Now<1%20%89%100%
Hapoel Beer-Sheva win1%47%72%>99%
Draw<1%23%83%100%
Juventus win<1%14%94%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.8 – 2.1Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
12%Hapoel Beer-Sheva clean sheet
45%Juventus clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hapoel Beer-Sheva

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1DGNK Dinamo H0–0
  2. MD2LAZ Alkmaar A1–2
  3. MD3Union SG A22 October
  4. MD4OFI Crete H5 November
  5. MD5Beşiktaş A26 November
  6. MD6Juventus H this match10 December
  7. MD7Celta H21 January
  8. MD8Bournemouth A28 January

Juventus

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WN.E.C. Nijmegen H5–0
  2. MD2WCelta A2–1
  3. MD3Rennes H22 October
  4. MD4AZ Alkmaar A5 November
  5. MD5Omonia H26 November
  6. MD6Hapoel Beer-Sheva A this match10 December
  7. MD7Ferencváros A21 January
  8. MD8Real Sociedad H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Juventus?

The model gives Hapoel Beer-Sheva a 13% chance of winning and Juventus 67%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Juventus?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for Hapoel Beer-Sheva and 2.1 for Juventus, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

Hapoel Beer-Sheva's qualification chance is 20% right now. A win would make it 47%, a draw 23% and a defeat 14%.

What does this match mean for Juventus?

Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 83% and a defeat 72%.

When is Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Juventus played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →