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Bournemouth vs Viktoria Plzeň: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Bournemouth5th, 6 pts
–Matchday 6
Viktoria Plzeň31st, 0 pts
64%Bournemouth win
21%Draw
15%Viktoria Plzeň win

The model gives Bournemouth a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Viktoria Plzeň 15%. Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 45%. Viktoria Plzeň's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 63%, a defeat to 26%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: throughViktoria Plzeň: top 8Viktoria Plzeň: through
Now70%>99%<1%33%
Bournemouth win80%100%<1%26%
Draw58%99%<1%37%
Viktoria Plzeň win45%99%3%63%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.0 – 0.8Expected goals
49%Both teams score
54%3 or more goals
43%Bournemouth clean sheet
14%Viktoria Plzeň clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Bournemouth

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WReal Sociedad A2–1
  2. MD2WSturm Graz H3–0
  3. MD3Milan H22 October
  4. MD4Sparta Praha A5 November
  5. MD5Celta A26 November
  6. MD6Viktoria Plzeň H this match10 December
  7. MD7Lillestrøm A21 January
  8. MD8Hapoel Beer-Sheva H28 January

Viktoria Plzeň

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LUnion SG H0–3
  2. MD2LFerencváros A1–2
  3. MD3Levski Sofia H22 October
  4. MD4Lillestrøm A5 November
  5. MD5Benfica H26 November
  6. MD6Bournemouth A this match10 December
  7. MD7Real Sociedad A21 January
  8. MD8Jagiellonia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bournemouth vs Viktoria Plzeň?

The model gives Bournemouth a 64% chance of winning and Viktoria Plzeň 15%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Viktoria Plzeň?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bournemouth and 0.8 for Viktoria Plzeň, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.

What does this match mean for Bournemouth?

Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 58% and a defeat 45%.

What does this match mean for Viktoria Plzeň?

Viktoria Plzeň's qualification chance is 33% right now. A win would make it 63%, a draw 37% and a defeat 26%.

When is Bournemouth vs Viktoria Plzeň played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →