Knockout Math
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Villarreal vs Napoli: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October, 21:00

Villarreal21st, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Napoli28th, 0 pts
36%Villarreal win
26%Draw
38%Napoli win

The model gives Villarreal a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Napoli 38%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 47%. Napoli's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 82%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Villarreal: top 8Villarreal: throughNapoli: top 8Napoli: through
Now5%63%21%90%
Villarreal win10%82%8%82%
Draw3%60%16%90%
Napoli win1%47%37%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

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