Knockout Math
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Viking vs Bayern München: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October, 21:00

Viking30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Bayern München2nd, 3 pts
6%Viking win
12%Draw
82%Bayern München win

The model gives Viking a 6% chance of winning, a draw 12% and Bayern München 82%. Viking's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 33%, a defeat to 8%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 56%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Viking: top 8Viking: throughBayern München: top 8Bayern München: through
Now<1%10%83%>99%
Viking win1%33%56%99%
Draw0%13%69%99%
Bayern München win<1%8%87%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–312%
0–110%
0–48%
1–28%
1–37%

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