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Napoli vs Viking: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Napoli22nd, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Viking33rd, 1 pt
77%Napoli win
15%Draw
8%Viking win

The model gives Napoli a 77% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Viking 8%. Napoli's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 65%. Viking's chance of going through is 9% now: a win would take it to 34%, a defeat to 6%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeNapoli: top 8Napoli: throughViking: top 8Viking: through
Now9%89%<1%9%
Napoli win11%94%0%6%
Draw2%76%0%12%
Viking win1%65%<1%34%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.5 – 0.7Expected goals
45%Both teams score
61%3 or more goals
51%Napoli clean sheet
8%Viking clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–011%
1–011%
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Napoli

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LArsenal H0–1
  2. MD2LVillarreal A1–3
  3. MD3WBodø/Glimt H4–3
  4. MD4Porto A4 November
  5. MD5Manchester City A24 November
  6. MD6Club Brugge H8 December
  7. MD7Sabah A20 January
  8. MD8Viking H this match27 January

Viking

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LStuttgart A1–3
  2. MD2DBayern München H3–3
  3. MD3LAston Villa A1–3
  4. MD4Sabah H4 November
  5. MD5Atlético de Madrid A25 November
  6. MD6Feyenoord H8 December
  7. MD7PSV Eindhoven H20 January
  8. MD8Napoli A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Napoli vs Viking?

The model gives Napoli a 77% chance of winning and Viking 8%, with a draw at 15%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Napoli vs Viking?

The model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance. Expected goals are 2.5 for Napoli and 0.7 for Viking, and the match has 3 or more goals in 61% of cases.

What does this match mean for Napoli?

Napoli's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 76% and a defeat 65%.

What does this match mean for Viking?

Viking's qualification chance is 9% right now. A win would make it 34%, a draw 12% and a defeat 6%.

When is Napoli vs Viking played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →