Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
Paris Saint-Germain1st, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Barcelona3rd, 3 pts
50%Paris Saint-Germain win
25%Draw
25%Barcelona win
The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Barcelona 25%. Paris Saint-Germain's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 99%. Barcelona's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 99%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Paris Saint-Germain: top 8 | Paris Saint-Germain: through | Barcelona: top 8 | Barcelona: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 74% | 99% | 69% | 99% |
| Paris Saint-Germain win | 86% | >99% | 58% | 99% |
| Draw | 68% | 99% | 72% | >99% |
| Barcelona win | 55% | 99% | 88% | >99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven
- Liverpool – Villarreal
- Manchester City – AEK Athens
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Lille – Galatasaray
- Aston Villa – Viking
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Bayern München – Arsenal
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Madrid – Leipzig
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK