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Barcelona vs Como: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Barcelona8th, 6 pts
–Matchday 8
Como9th, 6 pts
69%Barcelona win
19%Draw
12%Como win

The model gives Barcelona a 69% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Como 12%. Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 38%. Como's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 88%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBarcelona: top 8Barcelona: throughComo: top 8Como: through
Now71%>99%11%91%
Barcelona win81%100%6%88%
Draw56%>99%14%94%
Como win38%99%36%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.2 – 0.8Expected goals
48%Both teams score
56%3 or more goals
46%Barcelona clean sheet
11%Como clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Barcelona

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WFeyenoord H5–1
  2. MD2WGalatasaray A4–1
  3. MD3LParis Saint-Germain A2–4
  4. MD4Aston Villa H3 November
  5. MD5Sabah A25 November
  6. MD6Manchester City H8 December
  7. MD7Sporting CP A20 January
  8. MD8Como H this match27 January

Como

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WLeipzig H4–1
  2. MD2LFeyenoord A2–3
  3. MD3WManchester United H4–1
  4. MD4Lens A4 November
  5. MD5AEK Athens H24 November
  6. MD6Real Betis A9 December
  7. MD7Paris Saint-Germain H20 January
  8. MD8Barcelona A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Barcelona vs Como?

The model gives Barcelona a 69% chance of winning and Como 12%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Como?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 2.2 for Barcelona and 0.8 for Como, and the match has 3 or more goals in 56% of cases.

What does this match mean for Barcelona?

Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% right now. A win would make it 81%, a draw 56% and a defeat 38%.

What does this match mean for Como?

Como's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 88%.

When is Barcelona vs Como played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →