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Bayern München vs Real Betis: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

Bayern München14th, 5 pts
–Matchday 8
Real Betis5th, 9 pts
73%Bayern München win
17%Draw
10%Real Betis win

The model gives Bayern München a 73% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Real Betis 10%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 26%. Real Betis's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 99%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBayern München: top 8Bayern München: throughReal Betis: top 8Real Betis: through
Now64%>99%36%99%
Bayern München win73%100%28%99%
Draw44%99%46%100%
Real Betis win26%98%73%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.3 – 0.7Expected goals
46%Both teams score
59%3 or more goals
49%Bayern München clean sheet
10%Real Betis clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Bayern München

5 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WBodø/Glimt H5–0
  2. MD2DViking A3–3
  3. MD3DArsenal H2–2
  4. MD4Atlético de Madrid A3 November
  5. MD5Lille A25 November
  6. MD6Slavia Praha H8 December
  7. MD7Manchester United A20 January
  8. MD8Real Betis H this match27 January

Real Betis

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WLille A3–2
  2. MD2WPorto H3–2
  3. MD3WFeyenoord H1–0
  4. MD4Borussia Dortmund A4 November
  5. MD5Slovan Bratislava A24 November
  6. MD6Como H9 December
  7. MD7Arsenal H20 January
  8. MD8Bayern München A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bayern Munich vs Real Betis?

The model gives Bayern München a 73% chance of winning and Real Betis 10%, with a draw at 17%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs Real Betis?

The model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance. Expected goals are 2.3 for Bayern München and 0.7 for Real Betis, and the match has 3 or more goals in 59% of cases.

What does this match mean for Bayern München?

Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 73%, a draw 44% and a defeat 26%.

What does this match mean for Real Betis?

Real Betis's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 100% and a defeat 99%.

When is Bayern München vs Real Betis played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →