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LASK vs Porto: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

LASK24th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Porto34th, 0 pts
23%LASK win
25%Draw
52%Porto win

The model gives LASK a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Porto 52%. LASK's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 61%, a defeat to 17%. Porto's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 42%, a defeat to 8%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLASK: top 8LASK: throughPorto: top 8Porto: through
Now<1%31%<1%27%
LASK win1%61%0%8%
Draw<1%30%0%15%
Porto win<1%17%<1%42%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.6Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
19%LASK clean sheet
36%Porto clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

LASK

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LAEK Athens A0–1
  2. MD2LLiverpool H3–6
  3. MD3WSporting CP A3–2
  4. MD4Slovan Bratislava H3 November
  5. MD5Bodø/Glimt A24 November
  6. MD6Fenerbahçe H9 December
  7. MD7Real Madrid A19 January
  8. MD8Porto H this match27 January

Porto

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LManchester City H0–2
  2. MD2LReal Betis A2–3
  3. MD3LPSV Eindhoven H0–1
  4. MD4Napoli H4 November
  5. MD5Feyenoord A24 November
  6. MD6Liverpool A9 December
  7. MD7Slavia Praha H19 January
  8. MD8LASK A this match27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in LASK vs Porto?

The model gives LASK a 23% chance of winning and Porto 52%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in LASK vs Porto?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for LASK and 1.6 for Porto, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for LASK?

LASK's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 61%, a draw 30% and a defeat 17%.

What does this match mean for Porto?

Porto's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 42%, a draw 15% and a defeat 8%.

When is LASK vs Porto played?

Wednesday 27 January, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →