Knockout Math
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LASK vs Porto: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

LASK27th, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Porto31st, 0 pts
20%LASK win
23%Draw
56%Porto win

The model gives LASK a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Porto 56%. LASK's chance of going through is 11% now: a win would take it to 28%, a defeat to 5%. Porto's chance of going through is 66% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 44%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

LASK: top 8LASK: throughPorto: top 8Porto: through
Now<1%11%6%66%
LASK win<1%28%1%44%
Draw<1%10%3%57%
Porto win<1%5%9%78%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%

Other matchday 8 fixtures