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Twente vs Kairat Almaty: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Twente13th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Kairat Almaty15th, 1 pt
62%Twente win
22%Draw
17%Kairat Almaty win

The model gives Twente a 62% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Kairat Almaty 17%. Twente's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 85%. Kairat Almaty's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 30%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeTwente: top 8Twente: throughKairat Almaty: top 8Kairat Almaty: through
Now48%95%2%41%
Twente win61%99%<1%30%
Draw32%93%2%44%
Kairat Almaty win20%85%10%75%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
42%Twente clean sheet
15%Kairat Almaty clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Twente

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WThun H1–0
  2. MD2Lincoln Red Imps A22 October
  3. MD3Pafos H5 November
  4. MD4Freiburg A26 November
  5. MD5Aarhus A10 December
  6. MD6Kairat Almaty H this match17 December

Kairat Almaty

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DRiga FC A1–1
  2. MD2Panathinaikos H22 October
  3. MD3Atalanta A5 November
  4. MD4Mjällby H26 November
  5. MD5Universitatea Craiova H10 December
  6. MD6Twente A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Twente vs Kairat Almaty?

The model gives Twente a 62% chance of winning and Kairat Almaty 17%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Twente vs Kairat Almaty?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Twente and 0.9 for Kairat Almaty, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Twente?

Twente's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 85%.

What does this match mean for Kairat Almaty?

Kairat Almaty's qualification chance is 41% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 44% and a defeat 30%.

When is Twente vs Kairat Almaty played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →