Knockout Math
Live
EN

Nordsjælland vs KuPS Kuopio: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Nordsjælland16th, 1 pt
–Matchday 6
KuPS Kuopio31st, 0 pts
57%Nordsjælland win
23%Draw
20%KuPS Kuopio win

The model gives Nordsjælland a 57% chance of winning, a draw 23% and KuPS Kuopio 20%. Nordsjælland's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 46%. KuPS Kuopio's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 60%, a defeat to 20%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeNordsjælland: top 8Nordsjælland: throughKuPS Kuopio: top 8KuPS Kuopio: through
Now11%72%1%31%
Nordsjælland win17%85%<1%20%
Draw5%60%1%33%
KuPS Kuopio win2%46%5%60%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
39%Nordsjælland clean sheet
17%KuPS Kuopio clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Nordsjælland

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DHearts A1–1
  2. MD2CSKA Sofia H22 October
  3. MD3Monaco A5 November
  4. MD4Panathinaikos H26 November
  5. MD5Hajduk Split A10 December
  6. MD6KuPS Kuopio H this match17 December

KuPS Kuopio

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LTrabzonspor H2–4
  2. MD2Borac A22 October
  3. MD3Gent H5 November
  4. MD4Braga A26 November
  5. MD5CSKA Sofia H10 December
  6. MD6Nordsjælland A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Nordsjælland vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives Nordsjælland a 57% chance of winning and KuPS Kuopio 20%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Nordsjælland vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nordsjælland and 0.9 for KuPS Kuopio, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Nordsjælland?

Nordsjælland's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 60% and a defeat 46%.

What does this match mean for KuPS Kuopio?

KuPS Kuopio's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 60%, a draw 33% and a defeat 20%.

When is Nordsjælland vs KuPS Kuopio played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →