Kauno Žalgiris vs Freiburg: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00
The model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 15% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Freiburg 64%. Kauno Žalgiris's chance of going through is 32% now: a win would take it to 63%, a defeat to 23%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Kauno Žalgiris: top 8 | Kauno Žalgiris: through | Freiburg: top 8 | Freiburg: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 32% | 56% | 97% |
| Kauno Žalgiris win | 8% | 63% | 28% | 90% |
| Draw | 1% | 37% | 40% | 95% |
| Freiburg win | <1% | 23% | 67% | 99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Freiburg
- MD1WJablonec H3–2
- MD2Monaco A22 October
- MD3Trabzonspor A5 November
- MD4Twente H26 November
- MD5Panathinaikos H10 December
- MD6Kauno Žalgiris A this match17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Kauno Žalgiris vs Freiburg?
The model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 15% chance of winning and Freiburg 64%, with a draw at 21%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (12%).
Will both teams score in Kauno Žalgiris vs Freiburg?
The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for Kauno Žalgiris and 2.0 for Freiburg, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.
What does this match mean for Kauno Žalgiris?
Kauno Žalgiris's qualification chance is 32% right now. A win would make it 63%, a draw 37% and a defeat 23%.
What does this match mean for Freiburg?
Freiburg's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 90%.
When is Kauno Žalgiris vs Freiburg played?
Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- Ajax – Getafe
- Monaco – Lincoln Red Imps
- Atalanta – Mjällby
- Lugano – Sint-Truidense
- Midtjylland – Hajduk Split
- Nordsjælland – KuPS Kuopio
- Twente – Kairat Almaty
- Borac – Riga FC
- Crvena Zvezda – Trabzonspor
- Jablonec – Iberia Tbilisi
- Inter Escaldes – Aarhus
- Gent – Brann
- Pafos – Hearts
- Panathinaikos – Brighton
- CSKA Sofia – Thun
- Braga – Egnatia
- Universitatea Craiova – Copenhagen