Knockout Math
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Kauno Žalgiris vs Freiburg: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Kauno ŽalgirisLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 6
FreiburgLeague phase not started yet
16%Kauno Žalgiris win
21%Draw
63%Freiburg win

The model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 16% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Freiburg 63%. Kauno Žalgiris's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 31%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 84%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Kauno Žalgiris: top 8Kauno Žalgiris: throughFreiburg: top 8Freiburg: through
Now4%40%51%94%
Kauno Žalgiris win13%70%24%84%
Draw4%45%36%90%
Freiburg win2%31%63%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
1–36%

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