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Ajax vs Getafe: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Ajax26th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Getafe17th, 1 pt
45%Ajax win
26%Draw
29%Getafe win

The model gives Ajax a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Getafe 29%. Ajax's chance of going through is 69% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 48%. Getafe's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 85%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAjax: top 8Ajax: throughGetafe: top 8Getafe: through
Now11%69%31%91%
Ajax win20%86%15%85%
Draw5%63%30%93%
Getafe win2%48%58%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
32%Ajax clean sheet
23%Getafe clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Ajax

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LHajduk Split A1–2
  2. MD2Atalanta H22 October
  3. MD3Midtjylland A5 November
  4. MD4Thun H26 November
  5. MD5Sint-Truidense A10 December
  6. MD6Getafe H this match17 December

Getafe

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DUniversitatea Craiova A1–1
  2. MD2Lugano H22 October
  3. MD3Brighton H5 November
  4. MD4Iberia Tbilisi A26 November
  5. MD5Inter Escaldes H10 December
  6. MD6Ajax A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Ajax vs Getafe?

The model gives Ajax a 45% chance of winning and Getafe 29%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Ajax vs Getafe?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ajax and 1.1 for Getafe, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Ajax?

Ajax's qualification chance is 69% right now. A win would make it 86%, a draw 63% and a defeat 48%.

What does this match mean for Getafe?

Getafe's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 85%.

When is Ajax vs Getafe played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →