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Borac vs Riga FC: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Borac27th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Riga FC21st, 1 pt
39%Borac win
26%Draw
34%Riga FC win

The model gives Borac a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Riga FC 34%. Borac's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 46%, a defeat to 11%. Riga FC's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 29%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBorac: top 8Borac: throughRiga FC: top 8Riga FC: through
Now1%27%3%48%
Borac win2%46%1%29%
Draw<1%22%2%43%
Riga FC win<1%11%8%74%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Borac clean sheet
26%Riga FC clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Borac

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LPanathinaikos A1–2
  2. MD2KuPS Kuopio H22 October
  3. MD3Mjällby A5 November
  4. MD4Atalanta H26 November
  5. MD5Hearts A10 December
  6. MD6Riga FC H this match17 December

Riga FC

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DKairat Almaty H1–1
  2. MD2Pafos A22 October
  3. MD3Jablonec H5 November
  4. MD4Kauno Žalgiris A26 November
  5. MD5Atalanta H10 December
  6. MD6Borac A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Borac vs Riga FC?

The model gives Borac a 39% chance of winning and Riga FC 34%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Borac vs Riga FC?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Borac and 1.2 for Riga FC, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Borac?

Borac's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 46%, a draw 22% and a defeat 11%.

What does this match mean for Riga FC?

Riga FC's qualification chance is 48% right now. A win would make it 74%, a draw 43% and a defeat 29%.

When is Borac vs Riga FC played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →