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Jablonec vs Iberia Tbilisi: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Jablonec23rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Iberia Tbilisi33rd, 0 pts
56%Jablonec win
24%Draw
20%Iberia Tbilisi win

The model gives Jablonec a 56% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Iberia Tbilisi 20%. Jablonec's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 59%, a defeat to 19%. Iberia Tbilisi's chance of going through is 16% now: a win would take it to 39%, a defeat to 8%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeJablonec: top 8Jablonec: throughIberia Tbilisi: top 8Iberia Tbilisi: through
Now3%44%<1%16%
Jablonec win5%59%<1%8%
Draw1%31%<1%16%
Iberia Tbilisi win<1%19%2%39%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
39%Jablonec clean sheet
17%Iberia Tbilisi clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Jablonec

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LFreiburg A2–3
  2. MD2Brighton H22 October
  3. MD3Riga FC A5 November
  4. MD4Lugano H26 November
  5. MD5Trabzonspor A10 December
  6. MD6Iberia Tbilisi H this match17 December

Iberia Tbilisi

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LSint-Truidense A0–2
  2. MD2Mjällby H22 October
  3. MD3Copenhagen A5 November
  4. MD4Getafe H26 November
  5. MD5Crvena Zvezda H10 December
  6. MD6Jablonec A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Jablonec vs Iberia Tbilisi?

The model gives Jablonec a 56% chance of winning and Iberia Tbilisi 20%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Jablonec vs Iberia Tbilisi?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jablonec and 1.0 for Iberia Tbilisi, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Jablonec?

Jablonec's qualification chance is 44% right now. A win would make it 59%, a draw 31% and a defeat 19%.

What does this match mean for Iberia Tbilisi?

Iberia Tbilisi's qualification chance is 16% right now. A win would make it 39%, a draw 16% and a defeat 8%.

When is Jablonec vs Iberia Tbilisi played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →