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Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 16:30

Kairat Almaty15th, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Mjällby6th, 3 pts
38%Kairat Almaty win
26%Draw
36%Mjällby win

The model gives Kairat Almaty a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Mjällby 36%. Kairat Almaty's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 65%, a defeat to 21%. Mjällby's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeKairat Almaty: top 8Kairat Almaty: throughMjällby: top 8Mjällby: through
Now2%41%27%88%
Kairat Almaty win5%65%11%79%
Draw1%32%21%90%
Mjällby win<1%21%47%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Kairat Almaty clean sheet
27%Mjällby clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Kairat Almaty

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DRiga FC A1–1
  2. MD2Panathinaikos H22 October
  3. MD3Atalanta A5 November
  4. MD4Mjällby H this match26 November
  5. MD5Universitatea Craiova H10 December
  6. MD6Twente A17 December

Mjällby

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WInter Escaldes H2–0
  2. MD2Iberia Tbilisi A22 October
  3. MD3Borac H5 November
  4. MD4Kairat Almaty A this match26 November
  5. MD5Pafos H10 December
  6. MD6Atalanta A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby?

The model gives Kairat Almaty a 38% chance of winning and Mjällby 36%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kairat Almaty and 1.3 for Mjällby, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Kairat Almaty?

Kairat Almaty's qualification chance is 41% right now. A win would make it 65%, a draw 32% and a defeat 21%.

What does this match mean for Mjällby?

Mjällby's qualification chance is 88% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 90% and a defeat 79%.

When is Kairat Almaty vs Mjällby played?

Thursday 26 November, 16:30 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →