Knockout Math
Latviski

Freiburg vs Twente: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

FreiburgLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 4
TwenteLeague phase not started yet
58%Freiburg win
23%Draw
19%Twente win

The model gives Freiburg a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Twente 19%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. Twente's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Freiburg: top 8Freiburg: throughTwente: top 8Twente: through
Now51%94%36%89%
Freiburg win65%98%25%85%
Draw38%91%40%92%
Twente win25%85%66%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

Other matchday 4 fixtures