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Freiburg vs Twente: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Freiburg7th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Twente13th, 3 pts
58%Freiburg win
23%Draw
19%Twente win

The model gives Freiburg a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Twente 19%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 92%. Twente's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 93%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFreiburg: top 8Freiburg: throughTwente: top 8Twente: through
Now56%97%48%95%
Freiburg win71%>99%36%93%
Draw41%96%52%97%
Twente win28%92%79%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
40%Freiburg clean sheet
16%Twente clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Freiburg

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WJablonec H3–2
  2. MD2Monaco A22 October
  3. MD3Trabzonspor A5 November
  4. MD4Twente H this match26 November
  5. MD5Panathinaikos H10 December
  6. MD6Kauno Žalgiris A17 December

Twente

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WThun H1–0
  2. MD2Lincoln Red Imps A22 October
  3. MD3Pafos H5 November
  4. MD4Freiburg A this match26 November
  5. MD5Aarhus A10 December
  6. MD6Kairat Almaty H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Freiburg vs Twente?

The model gives Freiburg a 58% chance of winning and Twente 19%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Freiburg vs Twente?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Freiburg and 0.9 for Twente, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Freiburg?

Freiburg's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 96% and a defeat 92%.

What does this match mean for Twente?

Twente's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

When is Freiburg vs Twente played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →