Twente vs Thun: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
TwenteLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
ThunLeague phase not started yet
58%Twente win
23%Draw
19%Thun win
The model gives Twente a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Thun 19%. Twente's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 73%. Thun's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 37%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Twente: top 8 | Twente: through | Thun: top 8 | Thun: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 36% | 89% | 6% | 48% |
| Twente win | 49% | 96% | 3% | 37% |
| Draw | 24% | 84% | 6% | 52% |
| Thun win | 13% | 73% | 18% | 76% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Lugano – Crvena Zvezda
- Hajduk Split – Ajax
- Gent – Aarhus
- Egnatia – Midtjylland
- KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor
- Mjällby – Inter Escaldes
- Panathinaikos – Borac
- CSKA Sofia – Monaco
- Riga FC – Kairat Almaty
- Universitatea Craiova – Getafe
- Atalanta – Pafos
- Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris
- Copenhagen – Braga
- Hearts – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi
- Freiburg – Jablonec
- Brann – Lincoln Red Imps