Knockout Math
Latviski

Twente vs Thun: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

TwenteLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
ThunLeague phase not started yet
58%Twente win
23%Draw
19%Thun win

The model gives Twente a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Thun 19%. Twente's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 73%. Thun's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 37%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Twente: top 8Twente: throughThun: top 8Thun: through
Now36%89%6%48%
Twente win49%96%3%37%
Draw24%84%6%52%
Thun win13%73%18%76%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

Other matchday 1 fixtures