Twente vs Pafos: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
The model gives Twente a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Pafos 21%. Twente's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 87%. Pafos's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 37%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Twente: top 8 | Twente: through | Pafos: top 8 | Pafos: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 48% | 95% | 5% | 50% |
| Twente win | 64% | 99% | 1% | 37% |
| Draw | 34% | 94% | 4% | 54% |
| Pafos win | 21% | 87% | 15% | 79% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Twente
- MD1WThun H1–0
- MD2Lincoln Red Imps A22 October
- MD3Pafos H this match5 November
- MD4Freiburg A26 November
- MD5Aarhus A10 December
- MD6Kairat Almaty H17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Twente vs Pafos?
The model gives Twente a 55% chance of winning and Pafos 21%, with a draw at 24%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Twente vs Pafos?
The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Twente and 1.0 for Pafos, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.
What does this match mean for Twente?
Twente's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 87%.
What does this match mean for Pafos?
Pafos's qualification chance is 50% right now. A win would make it 79%, a draw 54% and a defeat 37%.
When is Twente vs Pafos played?
Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Aarhus – Braga
- Atalanta – Kairat Almaty
- Midtjylland – Ajax
- Thun – Hearts
- Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split
- Mjällby – Borac
- Trabzonspor – Freiburg
- Monaco – Nordsjælland
- Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
- Lugano – Kauno Žalgiris
- Getafe – Brighton
- Sint-Truidense – Brann
- Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
- Riga FC – Jablonec
- Universitatea Craiova – Egnatia