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Lugano vs Sint-Truidense: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Lugano8th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Sint-Truidense5th, 3 pts
44%Lugano win
26%Draw
30%Sint-Truidense win

The model gives Lugano a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sint-Truidense 30%. Lugano's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 71%. Sint-Truidense's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 68%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLugano: top 8Lugano: throughSint-Truidense: top 8Sint-Truidense: through
Now23%86%19%80%
Lugano win39%97%8%68%
Draw15%85%15%82%
Sint-Truidense win8%71%38%96%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
32%Lugano clean sheet
23%Sint-Truidense clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lugano

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WCrvena Zvezda H3–2
  2. MD2Getafe A22 October
  3. MD3Kauno Žalgiris H5 November
  4. MD4Jablonec A26 November
  5. MD5Copenhagen A10 December
  6. MD6Sint-Truidense H this match17 December

Sint-Truidense

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WIberia Tbilisi H2–0
  2. MD2Midtjylland A22 October
  3. MD3Brann H5 November
  4. MD4Hajduk Split A26 November
  5. MD5Ajax H10 December
  6. MD6Lugano A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lugano vs Sint-Truidense?

The model gives Lugano a 44% chance of winning and Sint-Truidense 30%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lugano vs Sint-Truidense?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lugano and 1.1 for Sint-Truidense, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lugano?

Lugano's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 85% and a defeat 71%.

What does this match mean for Sint-Truidense?

Sint-Truidense's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 82% and a defeat 68%.

When is Lugano vs Sint-Truidense played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →