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Aarhus vs Twente: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Aarhus30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Twente13th, 3 pts
37%Aarhus win
26%Draw
37%Twente win

The model gives Aarhus a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Twente 37%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 55%. Twente's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 91%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAarhus: top 8Aarhus: throughTwente: top 8Twente: through
Now12%72%48%95%
Aarhus win24%89%28%91%
Draw7%70%42%96%
Twente win3%55%72%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Aarhus clean sheet
27%Twente clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Aarhus

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LGent A0–1
  2. MD2Egnatia H22 October
  3. MD3Braga H5 November
  4. MD4Brann A26 November
  5. MD5Twente H this match10 December
  6. MD6Inter Escaldes A17 December

Twente

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WThun H1–0
  2. MD2Lincoln Red Imps A22 October
  3. MD3Pafos H5 November
  4. MD4Freiburg A26 November
  5. MD5Aarhus A this match10 December
  6. MD6Kairat Almaty H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Aarhus vs Twente?

The model gives Aarhus a 37% chance of winning and Twente 37%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Aarhus vs Twente?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aarhus and 1.3 for Twente, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Aarhus?

Aarhus's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 70% and a defeat 55%.

What does this match mean for Twente?

Twente's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 96% and a defeat 91%.

When is Aarhus vs Twente played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →