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Midtjylland vs Hajduk Split: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Midtjylland18th, 1 pt
–Matchday 6
Hajduk Split12th, 3 pts
54%Midtjylland win
24%Draw
22%Hajduk Split win

The model gives Midtjylland a 54% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Hajduk Split 22%. Midtjylland's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 76%. Hajduk Split's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 87%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMidtjylland: top 8Midtjylland: throughHajduk Split: top 8Hajduk Split: through
Now32%90%34%91%
Midtjylland win46%97%22%87%
Draw21%85%35%93%
Hajduk Split win10%76%63%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%Midtjylland clean sheet
18%Hajduk Split clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Midtjylland

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DEgnatia A1–1
  2. MD2Sint-Truidense H22 October
  3. MD3Ajax H5 November
  4. MD4Pafos A26 November
  5. MD5Lincoln Red Imps A10 December
  6. MD6Hajduk Split H this match17 December

Hajduk Split

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WAjax H2–1
  2. MD2Thun A22 October
  3. MD3Lincoln Red Imps A5 November
  4. MD4Sint-Truidense H26 November
  5. MD5Nordsjælland H10 December
  6. MD6Midtjylland A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Midtjylland vs Hajduk Split?

The model gives Midtjylland a 54% chance of winning and Hajduk Split 22%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Midtjylland vs Hajduk Split?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Midtjylland and 1.0 for Hajduk Split, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Midtjylland?

Midtjylland's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 85% and a defeat 76%.

What does this match mean for Hajduk Split?

Hajduk Split's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 87%.

When is Midtjylland vs Hajduk Split played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →