Knockout Math
Live
EN

Kairat Almaty vs Universitatea Craiova: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 16:30

Kairat Almaty15th, 1 pt
–Matchday 5
Universitatea Craiova19th, 1 pt
38%Kairat Almaty win
26%Draw
35%Universitatea Craiova win

The model gives Kairat Almaty a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Universitatea Craiova 35%. Kairat Almaty's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 65%, a defeat to 20%. Universitatea Craiova's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeKairat Almaty: top 8Kairat Almaty: throughUniversitatea Craiova: top 8Universitatea Craiova: through
Now2%41%9%68%
Kairat Almaty win5%65%2%50%
Draw1%32%5%66%
Universitatea Craiova win<1%20%20%89%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Kairat Almaty clean sheet
27%Universitatea Craiova clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Kairat Almaty

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DRiga FC A1–1
  2. MD2Panathinaikos H22 October
  3. MD3Atalanta A5 November
  4. MD4Mjällby H26 November
  5. MD5Universitatea Craiova H this match10 December
  6. MD6Twente A17 December

Universitatea Craiova

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DGetafe H1–1
  2. MD2Inter Escaldes A22 October
  3. MD3Egnatia H5 November
  4. MD4Brighton A26 November
  5. MD5Kairat Almaty A this match10 December
  6. MD6Copenhagen H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Kairat Almaty vs Universitatea Craiova?

The model gives Kairat Almaty a 38% chance of winning and Universitatea Craiova 35%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs Universitatea Craiova?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kairat Almaty and 1.3 for Universitatea Craiova, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Kairat Almaty?

Kairat Almaty's qualification chance is 41% right now. A win would make it 65%, a draw 32% and a defeat 20%.

What does this match mean for Universitatea Craiova?

Universitatea Craiova's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 66% and a defeat 50%.

When is Kairat Almaty vs Universitatea Craiova played?

Thursday 10 December, 16:30 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →