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Gent vs Brann: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Gent14th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Brann11th, 3 pts
53%Gent win
24%Draw
23%Brann win

The model gives Gent a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Brann 23%. Gent's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 82%. Brann's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 75%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGent: top 8Gent: throughBrann: top 8Brann: through
Now41%93%22%83%
Gent win56%98%12%75%
Draw28%91%21%86%
Brann win17%82%46%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%Gent clean sheet
19%Brann clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Gent

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WAarhus H1–0
  2. MD2Braga A22 October
  3. MD3KuPS Kuopio A5 November
  4. MD4Crvena Zvezda H26 November
  5. MD5Thun A10 December
  6. MD6Brann H this match17 December

Brann

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WLincoln Red Imps H2–1
  2. MD2Kauno Žalgiris A22 October
  3. MD3Sint-Truidense A5 November
  4. MD4Aarhus H26 November
  5. MD5Braga H10 December
  6. MD6Gent A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Gent vs Brann?

The model gives Gent a 53% chance of winning and Brann 23%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Gent vs Brann?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gent and 1.0 for Brann, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Gent?

Gent's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 91% and a defeat 82%.

What does this match mean for Brann?

Brann's qualification chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 86% and a defeat 75%.

When is Gent vs Brann played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →