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Braga vs Egnatia: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Braga35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Egnatia22nd, 1 pt
73%Braga win
17%Draw
10%Egnatia win

The model gives Braga a 73% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Egnatia 10%. Braga's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 53%. Egnatia's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 39%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBraga: top 8Braga: throughEgnatia: top 8Egnatia: through
Now20%82%3%46%
Braga win26%89%1%39%
Draw7%69%3%54%
Egnatia win4%53%14%83%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.3 – 0.7Expected goals
47%Both teams score
58%3 or more goals
48%Braga clean sheet
10%Egnatia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Braga

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LCopenhagen A0–3
  2. MD2Gent H22 October
  3. MD3Aarhus A5 November
  4. MD4KuPS Kuopio H26 November
  5. MD5Brann A10 December
  6. MD6Egnatia H this match17 December

Egnatia

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DMidtjylland H1–1
  2. MD2Aarhus A22 October
  3. MD3Universitatea Craiova A5 November
  4. MD4Lincoln Red Imps H26 November
  5. MD5Kauno Žalgiris H10 December
  6. MD6Braga A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Braga vs Egnatia?

The model gives Braga a 73% chance of winning and Egnatia 10%, with a draw at 17%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Braga vs Egnatia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 2.3 for Braga and 0.7 for Egnatia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 58% of cases.

What does this match mean for Braga?

Braga's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 69% and a defeat 53%.

What does this match mean for Egnatia?

Egnatia's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 83%, a draw 54% and a defeat 39%.

When is Braga vs Egnatia played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →